Great analysis above and matches to the DCF valuations I've done previously too.
From a Neuren valuation perspective I think one of the most significant effects of FDA approval isn't about Trof or Retts..
Over the years Neuren has talked about treating many many neurological disorders with absolutely enormous market potential (lets not forget autism, alzheimers, stroke, TBI, multiple sclerosis, let alone Prader-Willi, etc). However, the big thing that has always counted against them is that after 20+ years (established 2001) Neuren still hasn't got a single drug to market! When I first looked at Neuren 6 years ago this seemed pretty damning. If there was something good here - why hadn't there been any success after 15+ years?
For those that haven't spent the last 6 years poring over every bit of info published by Neuren and reading every post on hotcopper Neuren likely looks very risky - 22 years spending money and still no approved drugs or sales revenue.
But... If Trof is approved this view is suddenly turned on its head. You have to say gosh - if Trof can get to market for Retts, then there must be a very good chance the same could happen for NNZ-2591 for many more indications. For those who understand NNZ-2591 is directly related to and in fact a more effective ver of Trof this is doubly so.
This means FDA approval could, I believe, trigger a major uprating on Neuren's entire pipeline & potential.
Considering the market for Retts pales into insignificance compared to the market potential for all the many other indications Neuren has discussed then a re-rating of this wider potential is what I believe is the most exciting prospect for Trof's FDA approval.
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