In my opinion today's Ann was released to generate a nice headline. But to be honest, there are a lot of question marks regarding the NPV of 1.5B USD.
Just take a look at the DFS from other LI companies, released during 2022, and you will come to see that most of them use conservative long term prices for their price assumptions. Furthermore, a minimum discount rate of 8% is applied in their DFS.
Check out LPI's DFS from February 2022 for example:
Discount rate of 8%, Opex of 3.718 USD/t of battery grade lithium carbonate (current spot price 72.000 USD/t) and their long term price assumption is 13.200 USD/t - 17.616USD/t until 2032, annual production of 15.200 t/p.a., USD 1.4B post tax NPV, 626 M USD CAPEX.
Sure, that is conservative, but has to be done as prices can just as quickly collapse as they can rise (see recent correction in the Li spot price).
I assume that EUR applied a long term Li price of around 40.000- 50.000 USD/t to generate that NPV number. How reliable is that assumption in the long term though? Lots of lithium players will bring their product on the market in 2026, so prices will come down I am sure.
As someone else already mentioned, applying a higher discount rate and a post tax consideration will also bring the NPV down significantly.
Therefore, I am wondering why they only provided very few details in today's announcement.
Eagerly waiting to see the final EUR DFS and all their assumptions. Will be nice comparing peer DFS studies from other Li players with that one then .
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