vir201 phase 2 african trial results

I thought I'd start a new thread as the current one is sitting in algorithmic trading!

We are now only a matter of months away from seeing the phase II results for the African VIR-201 trial.

Database lock is due next month, followed by a couple of months for data analysis. The first quarter of this year was set down for final analysis of patient samples as patient visits were due to be completed in Dec2009.

My view on this trial:

1) The trial was funded using non-dilutive funding, mostly large resource companies operating in Africa. A huge victory for such a small biotech company!

2) One of the aims of the trial is to prove that there is a correlation between a novel mode of action (immune response) and control of viral load. I would expect, if this is proven, then Virax may seek further non-dilutive funding to operate further trials. A huge bonus for shareholders if they can do this in a timely mannor as the cap is only $16m (not checked) as trials are very expensive and raising capital at these levels would be very dilutive.

3) The earlier trials produced some very interesting results, however this trial is using a dose 10 times higher, and Virax expects a stronger response. This is the main reason I'm so excited about the trial along with the fact that there is a much higher number of patients in the trial. If they can replicate or better the Phase Ib results, then the results may be statistically significant and hence attract attention from media, investors and suppliers of non-dilutive funding!

4) The drop out rate was only 4% or so compared to an expected 20-30%, hence they were able to recruit less patients than budgeted to achieve the desired number of patients in each group. A major success and proves their ability to run a trial to budget.

VHL has been stuck in biotech no mans land for years, this is their chance to break out and prove to the world they have something of immense value. A new independent director on board, some rather large accumulation and further verification of the platform has been achieved. With some luck this trial will prove efficacy and be recognised globally for a tremendous platform technology started over a decade ago!

Go Virax!