Two legitimate questions to which I don't, obviously, have factual answers. I do however have theories:
Why would management recommend a 25c buy? I have a couple of thoughts on this. 1) The company is hamstrung by its lack of cashflow, and is missing out on a huge number of opportunities (like early roll-out of batteries at Bulli Creek) because if they go to market for $$ the share price will be hammered; takeover solves the lack of cash. 2) Takeover makes for a bigger company faster which is is likely to bring benefits for management, unless they get sacked.
Why did the consortium walk away? As far as I understand it, they didn't. One of the consortium partners (the one with access to cash for investment) decided against it. As far as I can see, that partner had no share-holding; the 20% shareholder is, as far as any of us know, still a 20% shareholder (with about half of that holding purchased at 23c) - remember we have to be told if they sell. Why did the partner with cash leave? Probably because the projected return did not meet their requirements, given the risk. My guess is that this sort of capital is looking for doubling of the investment within two years, to cover failed ventures. They would have been offering 25c for a share that Morgan's values at DCF of 29c.
So what next? Calendar 2023 is key for derisking with milestones including: 1) completion of Wise's dam levee and main access tunnel (by March?); 2) completion of the generation cavern (by June?); 3) firing up Bauldercombe on time; 4) successful dewatering of pits; 5) completion of the high voltage line; 6) completion of the intake, headrace and tailrace tunnels (early 2024). As each of these ticks off, the risk is reduced and the shareprice should increase. MAT and cavern are the biggest risks, to my mind, now we know there is some fractured rock around, so fingers crossed till they are finished. I suspect significant re-rating around July, if those two high risk earthworks are OK, and the battery is operating.
GNX Price at posting:
15.3¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
