PNV 4.74% $2.43 polynovo limited

Ann: Presentation slides - J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference, page-65

  1. 147 Posts.
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    Unsolicited thoughts on the presentation (did not watch, just preso only). Focus on substantive and ignore the numerous grammatical errors:

    - Slide 5, first two points - Appears they are using price as an important differentiator with competitors (ie. key reason why they can serve underserved markets). Probably right, but would be not to lead with price as the first two points of a product features page personally.
    - Slide 5 - 20% plus EBITDA for US business, means US generated circa A$7m of EBITDA last year and should be A$10m+ this year on current growth rates.
    - Slide 5 - Some big words "hyper-growth" and "multi-billion dollar opportunities". Am assuming "multi-billion dollar" is TAM estimations, otherwise its just not realistic if that were a total sales number.
    - Slide 9 - Clearly on track for $40m+ sales this year. This is a respectable number and consistent with 30% growth over the last few years, just wished they didn't use words like "hyper growth" because it's clearly not that and it attracts investors with weak hands.
    - Slide 11 - These numbers i take with a grain of salt. Trauma at 78.2m incidences valued at $3.6b. That's $46 per case. Using the burns numbers that's $134 per case, hernia $258 per case and 155m breast procedures with a TAM of $1b?.
    - Slide 12 - Synpath is at "Develop" stage? I thought this was launched during the PB era and before MTX?
    - Slide 12 - clearly they are going back into their circle of competence (e.g. looking at partnering for hernia, breast etc). This is a good sign, but i think as a result all previous timelines provided on market launch probably need to be re-iterated or revised.
    - Finally, nothing about India. JPM conference is probably not the audience, but would have liked to have heard an update.

    All in all, clearly a lot of rhetoric and not a lot of substance. Using words like "hyper growth", "alliances", "steep curve", "accelerating" but little backing those words. It may be that India, Canada, HK may increase sales growth post FY23 but at the moment that appears to be hope not actual.

    A nothing presentation - neither good nor bad for PNV generally for long term holders.
 
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