Banter and General Comments, page-25

Freight is incredibly cheap compared to 12 months ago.



Mixed with "Signs of further cooling in inflation in December spurred bullish expectations Thursday that the Federal Reserve will reduce the size of its upcoming interest-rate hikes. Fed funds futures showed a 93.2% probability of a rate increase of 25 basis points for the decision due February 1, soaring from 76.7% a day earlier, according to the CME FedWatch tool. If the Federal Open Market Committee were to follow through on that view, the central bank would drive its benchmark rate to a range of 4.5%-4.75%. A rate hike of 25 basis points would be the smallest since the Fed, led by Chair Jerome Powell, began running borrowing rates up in March 2022, by a quarter-percentage point.
The December CPI report reinforces the trend of a declining rate of inflation, Yung-Yu Ma, chief investment strategist at BMO Wealth Management, said in a Thursday note. "Most importantly, this is happening with a labor market that remains healthy," Ma wrote. "This should soften the Fed's tone at the next meeting, and it reinforces our belief in a soft landing in which inflation falls but the labor market remains healthy and the economy recalibrates to higher interest rates in the coming quarters."