Always love your posts @Surfguy.
of note.
In addition to the caliber of our mgmt, what really attracted me was the products capabilities if proven.
Of course, that box through qualification of 130nm and 28nm has now been ticked.
Why is the product so compelling.?
How can we think that our target market for every electronic device on the planet May one day be achievable?
Competitive advantage vs flash.
1. Cost- 25-33% cheaper
2. At least 100 x in speed, endurance and energy reduction
3. 350x radiation tolerance; and list goes on with scaling, security etc
Then rule your thumb over other disruptive nvm (mram, dram) and you will soon find we have the commercial advantage with all competitors.
So let’s derive a reasonable market cap with forward prediction to 2027 for a company that may well not only reduce our carbon footprint but assist in changing the way we communicate.
stage 1: embedded
2027 = $2.96b revenue with reram predicted to take 33% share (from flash)
= $1b (Ex Nov 22 wbt investor presentation)
multiply as Pe of 30 and straight away $30b mc
to the naysayers, this figure is based on royalty payments (ie payments from partners and customers)
in 2026 WBT says that both discreet and automotive shall be ready for commercialisation.
Discreet is the real money shot babies so forget $1b revenue.
Add discreet when we already have multiple tier 1 fabs supporting embedded and you can reasonably (conservatively) triple that income.
so in 4 yrs, It’s measurable to suggest we shall be earning revenue of $4b
I am still going to retain the PE of 30 (but remember the cagr is probably more like 90 at that point) and you have, yep $120b mc.
of course over the next few years their shall be some dilutionary events to bolster our growth. Do I think we can be over $100b company in 4 yrs?
Unlikely.
So I reserve my dreams to $20b. I know that’s a given and why I shall remain spartan.
Congrats all. Dyo , work it out yourself and all that nonsense
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