Ann: Large-Scale REE Targets Identified at Arthur River, page-14

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Khaliqs

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18/01/23

14:43

Post #: 65754368
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Originally posted by dunnomuch: ↑

Why is the trading in KFMO sus? maybe a possibility is that the results are due quite soon which will see a material move either up or down (depending on quality if results) so in order to improve leverage a shareholder of KFM clips off some of those and then buys 2.55 times the volume in the options? Same capital outlay but now more leverage. The options might be more attractive as there is now a bit more volume on offer.

Nothing particularly suspicious about that trading...

As for the pricing matrix of Black-Scholes, the normal risk free rate of return is the 10 year bond rate which should be 3.5% not 2% and by reducing the volatility to a lower level it creates a less favourable price than the current offer. Difference there is historical volatility as opposed to implied volatility but given its such a tiny company that is pretty new either measure is bound to be flawed. I would imagine that IF KFM hits something decent then the Market Cap is going to double at a minimum which would mean the options would be 30c in the money with Theta left to play out over 2 years giving at least 20c time value on top of the 30c intrinsic value hence an option price of at least 50c should pay dirt be hit. That gives 2.5 times return which is better than the shares doubling (or just less than double at $1 a share from 52c currently) Any price over $1.20 per share would probably also create plenty of interest in those options giving room to hop out.

Biggest concern with these options is liquidity and that has made the buying at a reasonable price quite difficult however there probably isn't much time left before a decent announcement so that liquidity should dissipate somewhat if things get crazy exciting IF something valuable is discovered.

I'm sure that I wasn't the only buyer of KFMO yesterday and today, KFM is a punt for me so why not get some better odds on the same race?

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when someone wipes all the options 30 min before close ray after Ann is sus, don’t really care just hoping results are good

KFM Price at posting: 52.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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(20min delay)
Last 7.0¢		Change 0.000(0.00%)		Mkt cap ! $3.760M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
0.0¢	0.0¢	0.0¢	$0	0

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
2	17264	7.0¢

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
8.0¢	57827	1

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
2	17264	0.070
1	15000	0.069
1	95000	0.065
1	16390	0.061
1	50000	0.058

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.080	57827	1
0.081	52600	1
0.094	86400	1
0.095	50000	1
0.099	50000	1

Last trade - 10.44am 07/10/2024 (20 minute delay)

KFM (ASX) Chart

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Ann: Large-Scale REE Targets Identified at Arthur River, page-14

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Ann: Large-Scale REE Targets Identified at Arthur River, page-14

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