I posted this simple model in July last year. A few of the numbers may have changed since then, and in particular the realised selling price for spod depends heavily on the undisclosed terms of our offtake contracts. Plus, we won't reach nameplate capacity during CY2023. So maybe it's a little optimistic for the near term but gives an idea of what can be achieved. Happy for anyone except troyklomo to shoot holes in it.
Production: 173,000 tonnes 5.8% spod concentrate (from the updated DFS presentation Aug 21 - they stated they could go up to 197kt but let's be conservative)
Pricing: FOB price US$5000 (latest reported price is >$7000 but that's for 6% and spot pricing, not contract).
Operating Cost: US$362 (from DFS) - let's make it US$500 to allow for inflation
Gross annual profit: 173,000t * (US$5000 - US$500) = US$778m = A$1.1bn (@0.70 - current exchange rate is more favourable)
Less royalties, overheads, taxes (say 40%) gives annual NPAT of A$667m.
Using a PE of 8, MC should be 667m * 8 = $5.3bn.
With 1.7bn SOI, the SP should be $5.3bn / 1.7bn = $3.12 per share
Not advice, DYOR etc.
Figaro
- Forums
- ASX - By Stock
- CXO
- Banter and general comments
Banter and general comments, page-21251
-
-
- There are more pages in this discussion • 17,992 more messages in this thread...
You’re viewing a single post only. To view the entire thread just sign in or Join Now (FREE)
Featured News
Add CXO (ASX) to my watchlist
(20min delay)
|
|||||
Last
10.0¢ |
Change
0.005(5.26%) |
Mkt cap ! $213.6M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
9.8¢ | 10.5¢ | 9.8¢ | $1.361M | 13.63M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 91988 | 9.9¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
10.0¢ | 118227 | 1 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 91988 | 0.099 |
9 | 654591 | 0.098 |
6 | 559737 | 0.097 |
11 | 1222781 | 0.096 |
22 | 1254326 | 0.095 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.100 | 118227 | 1 |
0.105 | 7152048 | 81 |
0.110 | 2157839 | 57 |
0.115 | 1792863 | 30 |
0.120 | 1901062 | 25 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 18/09/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
Featured News
CXO (ASX) Chart |