CSL is an interesting comparison. CSL has a $3.5 billion EBITDA and a $140 billion market cap and a 42 P/E.
What would it take for Neuren to achieve the same? If their average orphan drug ends up selling for US$150k per annum, and licensed out for a 50% royalty (Neuren won't be asking future partners to take on the same costs & risks as Acadia did), and their expenses are 25% of their income, then they'd need about 45,000 patients worldwide to reach AU$3.5 billion EBITDA.
Some of my numbers above are guesses - but plug in whatever numbers you want - reaching $3.5 billion is quite believable.
Neuren has said Phelan-McDermid, Angelman, Pitt Hopkins and Prader-Willi have 127,000 potential patients in US + Europe and 205,000 potential patients in Asia.
I note again these indications are not the end game, they are potentially only the first step. This is why the results of the Ph II trials in the above 4 indications are arguably far more significant than the FDA decision on Trof/Retts.
NEU Price at posting:
$8.94 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Not Held
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