GC you seem to be proxy for JW... very boring with no facts.
Split, in reply to your post,
You and even I can hope ther will be no more capital raisings.
My calculated GUESS...They will need capital and soon!
Oh it will be camouflaged in an announcement of "capital required to upgrade the mill to produce 60,000 oz pa" and they will seek approx $10m where max $2m is all that's required for the upgrade..... I am still being treated as amushrooms. The extra is for "everything they haven't disclosed" eg current liabilities. Do the maths 60 people * $?? per week plus 4 months late into any kind of production. Some contractors who were paid in shares at 30c per share, might not find any more gullible contractors out there.
In the meantime those you call "sophisticated investors" haven't managed to sell at a quick profit and are a large overhang on the market. Impossible to raise more at the current price... maybe 19c unless someone churns the stock.
On the charts the down move is similar to its prior downtrend, MACD crossed to the downside on daily and weekly charts in Feb 2010. Ask Why? Ask WHO is selling? Ask WHY?
As for Valuations which some on this forum attempted. There are many gold explorers with far less JORC and further away from mining than AAM and these have much higher market caps. Maybe no one really believes the AAM story except for small holders like yourselves. Look at what happened to CRE, Croesus and others.
Re Valuation attempt A company that pours 30,000oz pa at ave cost of Aud $650pa (inclusive of overheads) and with gold at $1000 USD and AUD at .92, should clear $13 mill profit pa. 1. With 190m shares that's 7 cents profit per share 2. With 120m shares that would have been 11 cents per share and allowing for interest on borrowing instead of issuing shares maybe 10c profit per share (allows 1m interest).
Explorers often have wildly inflated prices... punters are buying and selling. Resource stocks generally have PER (price Earning ratios > 12) With a PER of 6 (low)and profit of $13m ...... to get a estimate price multiply the earnings per share by the PER (ratio).
1. with 190m shares the price should be at least 42c (7*6) 2. with 120m shares would equate to 60c (10*6) Large difference!!! As profits increase due to large mill throughput and gold price increases ....the gap between profit per share increases dramatically as the number of shares on issue varies.
Mow assuming that the management gave a dividend of 33% ...imagine that... .....
The above PER's are very LOW and don't factor in any upside in the share price due to rumors (eg on this site) or assets JORC, longevity of the mine and gold price changes.
Banks trade at PE's of approx 8-12, Mining companies anything from 20+ BHP gave an interim (half year dividend of 42cents. approx 2% pa.
At this second there are 63 sellers for 3.3m shares and 44 buyers for 1.3m shares (rounded) If I wanted to sell any volume the price would hit 21c.
On the 05-01-2010 there was 1.27m shares traded and 53 trades of 500 shares at a time at 37.5cents between ETRD buying and CITI selling ....go figure... I don't believe in conspiracy theories but
AAM Price at posting:
24.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
