Just checking in on my RNU charts as I haven't looked at it for a while. The SP action has followed my hypothetical trend line downward, but we've just hit what I think could be a turning point so sharing with you folks.
This daily RNU chart is a gaggle of lines as we've had so much conflicting information to deal with. Be it macro, wars, interest rates, negative E.V sentiment, CPI ET AL. RNU has been an interesting journey for me chart wise and has made me question everything I thought I understood about charts. Anyway, here's my crack at picking it apart. As always for comment and never as recommendation.
Notes: Historical trend between the green and red/orange lines, three support points (S1 to S3) formed, declining volumes.
The Doji symbol is usually understood as an indication of indecision between buyers and sellers, this popped up on Wednesday followed by a bearish candle bringing SP down to S2 support. The last time this pattern occurred for RNU was 3rd December 2022 resulting in retest of support before a trend reversal and upward movement.
The declining volume is indicating that supply is drying up, this could be due to stop losses from the big buying period between 5 - 10 January are done and dusted as traders took their profits at the 68% FIB, SP is testing 38 FIB seen below, this is another turning point (generally). Current action is almost identical to 3rd December '22 where a few days later SP retested lower support then reversed.
If this current movement plays out exactly (to Dec '22), the SP could reach 215 by early February but the likelihood we'll see 215 again IMHO is reduced because:
- We now have PEPR and
- We don't have another cash (insto placement) raise pressuring the SP down.
I generally use charts to try to understand sentiment as opposed to purely for technical analysis. The tech stuff I use is to confirm outputs from the sentiment side and when they mismatch, I retest my sentiment understanding. My aim is understanding sentiment primarily as I think this is the biggest driver.
Wrapping up I think 235 is our new low and 290 will be our next target with little bumps along the way near 250. The macro stuff is an input you should consider with all of this, I haven't included any thoughts on that here.
C
GLTA
