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LTR: Short squeeze coming for shorters - 2nd highest likelihood in all ASX, page-276

  1. 355 Posts.
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    ...the harder the short squeeze is going to be inflicted on them as there won’t be much of a free float for them to buy...

    Absolutely right @Lilow!
    An ever decreasing free float is the great enemy of every short seller!
    For those who are not familiar with short squeezes, here is a prime example from 2008 in Germany of Volkswagen/Porsche.
    This is still the most famous/notorious short squeeze of a company in the DAX of all times:

    https://getbux.com/de/blog/porsche-vw-coup/

    The Porsche-VW coup
    Today it's about a car manufacturer takeover thriller of the finest kind:
    how Porsche tried in vain to swallow the powerful Volkswagen Group - and choked on it.
    Part of that story is a spectacular short sale that cost investors billions of euros.
    What are short sales anyway?
    Short selling is a trade in which an investor bets that the price will go down in exchange for borrowing and selling a stock for a fee.
    If the stock price falls as expected, he can later buy and redeem the stock at a lower price.
    If the opposite happens, he has to get the paper at almost any price.
    We are driving into 2008, in the middle of the financial crisis.
    On September 15, the US investment bank Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy, and the markets played bungee jumping (without a rope).
    VW shares also fell.
    Many investors and hedge funds were betting that the stock would continue to fall and therefore went short.
    Porsche drops the market bomb
    As early as 2005, Porsche had begun to quietly increase its VW shares.
    The big goal: the takeover of VW.
    To do this, the company borrowed money from banks and made some complicated price bets.
    That's why the falling stock was bad - and expensive - for Porsche.
    Porsche had to act to get VW shares to rise again.
    On October 26, a Sunday, Porsche revealed how many VW shares it already had.
    A total of 42.6 percent of the common shares and 31.5 percent of options (ie the right to buy these shares at a certain point in time).
    Since the state of Lower Saxony held around 20 percent, only 5.7 percent of VW shares were freely available on the market.
    On the Monday after that, VW hell broke loose in the DAX.
    Because now hedge funds and other investors who had bet on falling VW prices had a huge problem.
    There were hardly any shares with which they could meet their delivery obligations.
    But they had to deliver (see above).
    When there are hardly any VW shares left...
    From 200 to more than 1000 euros
    So VW shares were in short supply.
    And when something becomes scarce, the price rises:
    the price of the share shot up from 200 euros to more than 1000 euros.
    For a short time, VW was the most expensive company in the world by market capitalization.

    A catastrophe for the hedge funds and many other investors who had bet on falling prices.
    As the Financial Times Deutschland reported, hedge funds such as Glenhill Capital and Viking lost around 15 billion euros in one day.
    Industry giants such as Larry Robbins and David Einhorn also gambled heavily.
    The rally didn't last very long, at the beginning of November the share was back at around 380 euros.
    But the damage was there.
    And how did the thriller end?
    The irony of the whole story: In the long term, the Porsche campaign brought nothing.
    In an attempt to take over VW, Porsche got into debt of around 11 billion euros.
    Bankruptcy threatened.
    Volkswagen, of all people, came to the rescue as a rescuer in an emergency - but of course there were a few conditions attached to it...
    The end of the story:
    In 2012 it was not Porsche that took over VW, but VW Porsche.
    Not David won, but Goliath.


 
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