I like your analysis and judging by your name suspect you have a focus on value and cash flow. Would be interested to hear your favourite coal and gas plays? Mine are YAL, TER, OEL and BRL at current prices.
I think as you have identified there are several risks and orange to red flags. It does always amaze me to see companies like this who somehow get away without a 4c.
That being said the valuation now is a very low EV compared to previously, noting the company had high inventory levels in last fin report with the most recent raise suggesting they are looking to replenish.
With activist turnaround, a board focussed on managing cash flow/making it positive, for me with a 20% hurdle rate it's enough to take a starter position, albeit with a stop loss and expectation that catalysts will be CEO appointment, HY report, entitlement offer 2nd phase decision and next quarterly.
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1 | 30000 | 0.029 |
2 | 101232 | 0.027 |
1 | 384615 | 0.026 |
1 | 380000 | 0.025 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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0.035 | 156060 | 2 |
0.036 | 213291 | 1 |
0.037 | 652681 | 3 |
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