Although interested in seeing an independent valuation I think we may be asking for the wrong information. A valuation is only as good as the inputs that go into it. Where is the prospective resource information and geological chance of success information that the current AND future drill plans are being based off? When I first invested in NWE I used exactly this information to calculate risk/reward and make an informed decision. I am now being asked many years later after significant follow on investment to make a sale decision without any of this information.
I have held C-level roles in ASX100 companies and invested in O&G / Minerals for many years but my background is not oil and gas so will need some support here. ( @OldGeo,@alexei ii, @seahunt etc)
In my experience an ASX listed organisation will NOT make a material investment decision without sufficient risk reducing data. The upcoming drill program and seismic 3D will cost:
- NWE circa $18m (90% of all available cash)
- MIN Circa $100m
These are material investments. My understanding (Correct Me If Im Wrong) in a O&G company you would need:(BOTH of these are normally shared prior to drilling in most O&G companies I have invested in)
- Geological Chance of Success on the drill
- Prospective resource calculations
- NPV modelling based on conservative prospective resource calculations. (Generally not shared)
- Probably a whole lot more that I'm not aware of
So where is this information? Are we really to believe that multiple wells, 3D seismic and other material commitments are being made in ASX listed companies without it?
This raises two potential areas of interest:
1) If this infomation is available and not being shared with shareholders.
- ASIC requires the Bidder statement to include all information known to the bidder which is material to a decision by a target security holder whether or not to accept the offer.
- ASIC also requires continuous disclosure on material price sensitive information.
2) If this information is NOT available OR is only an internal calculation
- That would be interesting as to why this was not done? This was the statement in the NWE Oct 22 Annual Report to Shareholders in the Risk Management section
As I said my experience does not extend to C-Level or Board in an O&G company. The above is really just some interesting observations and potential question that would be great to be validated by those with O&G experience.
Lets not jump to conclusions. For those with the specific experience:
1) What is the data used (Established methodology) for planning a Multi-drill program and 3d Seismic?
2) Is there any valid reason why this data would not be used?
Following that we can work on the most appropiate way to get these questions answered including via an EGM.
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