update on my thinking

This is just my opinion, and I have no knowledge other than what's publicly available, but I thought I would share my current ideas on the notes, following the recent announcement.

Short of a White Swan, or a vote against an extension, I think BEC is in a sufficient pickle to make it very doubtful that the extension sought will be short term.

If it isn't, and you calculate a YTM at the current coupon of 9.5%, we're no longer looking at a reasonable return, let alone the risk that the banks will call their loans in.

A six month extension is one thing, but if, as I suspect, a work out is going to be a matter of years, not months, suddenly the risk/reward ratio is tilted much more towards risk.

This would be so even if some incentives are offered, and, as I've said before, I can't see what these can be realistically.

I could be wrong about all this, and if there's a fault in my logic, please let me know.

btw, I think the shares are a lost cause, and I really don't see any value in them.