making me sob, page-4

Hi tot,

Don't really understand you numbers,

* Market cap of $200 mil = $1.20?? 200 mil/302mil would give SP of 0.66 on my calculator

* how do you get a NPV of ~$18 mil?

Theses are my back of the envelope calcs:

* assume that after their expansion (which is going to take time) they do produce 1.2 mil cases (and sell 1.2 mil cases)
* assume a profit of $2 a case (use your own number if you don't like this one). So $2.4 mil profit
* 302 mil shares on issue


Then we have
2.4/302 = .00795 profit (earnings per share)

0.09 / .00795 = PE of 11

For me this is a fair PE for what I think is a best case senerio. As:
1) I don't think WW will let them make run away profits, the market is a pretty tough and fickle one.
2) WW contract is for 350k case per year, of course they may take more, but doesn't guarantee plant works at 1.2 mil capacity
3) Own brand products, the company is getting excited that they may sell 120k case per annum (i.e. just 10% of their capacity under their own brand)
4) We don't really know if they can brew beer profitably or not or how much of their capacity they will utilise.

This is my opinion and I respect those that may have a differing one or a longer term view.

DIS: Currently don't hold was in the market previously upto 6 cents. Wish everyone all the best with this one, DYOR