Will QAN survive?, page-5424

I haven't said you can't make money trading short term.

My concern would be over the medium and longer term.

There's a fair amount of local aviation history to suggest in economic downturns, airlines are among many businesses that substantially suffer.

It's the failure to appropriately invest in new equipment that is among the Board's and management's biggest failings. They say not, but I reckon this will come back to bite them. The company has only ordered 40 new domestic aircraft (20 of each of two types) although they have 94 options, but the latter stretches through to 2034. At present, QAN has 75 Boeing 737-800 workhorses alone so there's a big difference between today's fleet and confirmed new orders. Surely like most ageing transport equipment, cash costs per annum must rise and (sometimes) breakdowns become more frequent. Not unsafe per se, but costly to keep in the air. Side issues like having to keep crews trained on this older equipment also must have some cost.

Eventually I believe "something" will occur with QAN: perhaps a government takeover, in a case of history reversing if that's the correct term. SH may be left high and dry irrespective of any SP euphoria in January 2023.