What a great week my fellow holders.
The reversal and breakout I wrote about a couple of weeks ago, has come to fruition.
The pullback was not as destructive as I thought, both the severity and the duration.
We only dropped to 22, not to 20- 21, and it only lasted a few days before we started our ascent north.
I guess, after being smashed so heavily post 200 entry, my optimism had turned to cynicism, and my thoughts certainly did have a negative flavour to them.
I robustly believe in the fundamentals, which continue to greatly improve with no corresponding sp rise....until now.
So, I am more bullish than ever...it's all just part of the journey.
Then the thread turned into a civil war, with long time stalwarts being harassed and attacked. It certainly divided our little community. Funny how the major protagonist, who has allegedly poured their life savings into SYA, is now know where to be seen....now that the SP is on a tear... I would have thought they would be shouting their glee from the rooftops- Sayona, Sayona, Sayona!!!
But alas, they are no where to be seen.
There is a very valuable lesson there....
I digress...
Its amazing the difference 24hrs can make on the markets, let alone a week.
There were glimpses there where it looked like a serious break out.
Particularly on Friday when it ran hard from 27.5 to 29, but it fizzled out as the buyers dropped off after taking some profit.
The short positions are slowly reducing as they continue their slow, orderly exit with their daily pattern of up- down-up, and a subdued close.
Some of those short positions will either be closed, or now transitioning to going long.
It is still a fight though, as you can easily see during the closing auctions, and they will be around, to some level, for eternity.
Market wise, there is a real tussle going on though, between the bulls and bears....and the bulls are starting to to get a foot hold back in the market.Optimism is returning, both in the lithium space and the broader markets, with the LIT continuing its steady climb.
Some say its the dumb retail money piling in, but the volumes across the markets is just too high for that.
The S&P cracked key resistance at 4090 last night, with a high to 4094, after a late profit taking selloff,
the index- 4070 at close.
The broader markets have been looking for direction, and been a little choppy over the last couple of weeks, waiting for the Fed's next decision
If favourable ,the S&P could crack 4100 this week and head quickly to 4200, dragging up the 50 ma to cross the 200ma.
The elusive golden cross.
If this happens, it will officially signify the next bull market has begun. Watch the sidelined insto money pour in then.
If you ask me, with the shifting sentiment in 2023, this bull market has already begun, but still depends on the fed playing ball.
Greed is definitely back on the cards. and if there is one thing that drives the markets, its greed.
PCE data came in favourably, building the case for a 25 basis point rise next week.
BARONS-
The core personal-consumption expenditures price index, also known as the core PCE deflator, rose 4.4% on an annual basis in December from 4.7% in November, in line with expectations of economists surveyed by FactSet. The headline PCE deflator, which includes food and energy prices, declined to 5% last month from 5.5% in the period prior, further evidence of cooling inflation.
This latest batch of data supports the narrative that inflationary pressures, which defined the market turmoil of 2022, are beginning to ease, building on encouraging consumer-level data earlier this month.
It is a further sign that the Fed is more likely to raise interest rates by only 25 basis points, or one-quarter of a percentage point, when its monetary-policy committee meets next week.80% of analysts now tipping a 25 point rise
As this has now become the expectation, they raise 50, expect a tough week ahead.
But if they stick to 25, as about 80% of analysts are now predicting, we could be off to the races.
As for Sayona, we can expect our quarterly by Tuesday, which may disseminate a little more positive information, to keep the rally powering ahead. A little boost of NOX.
There could be a catalyst in there that actually pushes us more than the 0.5-1c in a session.
It has been a steady rise up.
The chart looks fantastic, almost perfect, A gradual steady rise...(too perfect??? hopefully Just my cynicism again)
There is an engulfing pattern at the top of this run, which signifies a reversal, but sayona's charts haven't been playing by the rules since we entered the 200, so anything is possible.
Case in point- There has been some doji's on the way up this week signalling a possible reversal, but we just kept on trucking.
So, I expect we will continue our rise with the trend...you can see there are market forces there which want to drive this higher. Our volumes are also increasing.
We also have some near term catalysts coming our way.
The quarterly, bi-monthly updates, Moblan results, production, a combined DFS, SYA's second offtake, refining decision and Authier updates, as well as left field JV's, Korea, Chile, RIO and other curveball possibilities.
So, with the macro improving providing some tailwind in our SP sails, an improvement in the lithium sector as the market muppets realise lithium prices are not going to crash, improving fundamentals with production fast approaching, looks like we are seeing a long awaited re-rate, which should now take into account our latest acquisitions/JV's,and the potential they could bring.
They tried hard to shake out the lithium sector last year, but 2023 is OUR year!
This years revenue, could see our MC in the the 4-5 billion region.
I dont know of any lithium producers lower than that!
So If you can, hang on, stay put...do nothing...
The ascent is only beginning.
Good luck everyone.
(20min delay)