Will QAN survive?, page-5427

DOn't forget myself in your (incorrect) obsession over people's positions (better to focus on your long going forward). @CbrMaroon has declared himself not short so many times, whilst I have happily declared I am.

Qantas has enjoyed a rare purple patch in a massive post COVID distorted market. Investors really are going a very poor job of forward demand valuation.

Intelligently, far more Aussie mortgage holders switched to fixed rate mortgages through the pandemic and from then to the end of 2021, fixed with an interest rate averaging 2.14 per cent. Unfortunately, being an Government endorsed oligopoly, the banking industry only provide 3 years fixed. Which means a truck load of Aussie mortgage holders are, once more RBA rises come in, going to be paying 6%+ on their mortgages.

The average Aussie mortgage is $600K

That equates to the average Aussie mortgaged couple having to pay instead of $2.5K a month, instead, $4K a month.

Holiday anyone? Me thinks not.

Now if I keep explaining the figures in more depth I am going to lose your attention. You clearly like pretty pictures from your above post, so here is a good one from the RBA on likely household cash flow effects:




The Aussie home ownership dream is about to take a big kick in the teeth (I am long property and wish I were wrong on this).

Travel demand was booming due to pent up demand. That's nearly run its course and will flatline and then quickly decline as Aussie household spending seriously curtailed across 2023 to 2024 across households with mortgages nearly across the board.

I kind of agree with some of the people above. Inflation has not gone, only peaked (travel a big factor), but its going to remain high, which only increases the need for many households to reduce unessential expendables like holidays to feed the kids and keep the air-con on....

(by the way, this thread really should be redundant now COVID bankruptcy gone, but you fellas will continue to respond).

I am short QAN for full disclosure.