It's hard not to think that if this whole project was time shifted one year earlier dilution might have ended up being a lot less. I've been told that the chairman told investors back when they bought Nifty from Metals X that they intended for minimal dilution of investors following the capital raise for the acquisition. In hindsight, that was ambitious and market conditions soured while we got screwed over by Glencore.
I think it sensible for investors such as myself and
@Johnyb888 to reflect on whether it was worthwhile holding this stock prior to finance. You've got to assess your investments and timing and learn. At the last close I am above water. If the stock falls to the capital raise price I am below water, having a net average cost of 12.3c a share. But the opportunity cost of holding this and averaging down and trading it, when I should have been riding the lithium wave is another matter. I thought copper was a stronger longer term bet. Furthermore, I sold the OZL I received from the takeover of CZI to buy CYM. So, I missed out of some of the upside that OZL shareholders got too. I thought CYM would out perform OZL over that period.
I'm still happy with this investment. I bought this stock because I thought it was the best near term production project being a brown fields project and I do back the competence of management as operators. We've been carrying all the management and senior staff needed for the refurbish and restart on the books for a while now. It's just a question of whether it was worthwhile holding it prior to finance.
Will the share price retrace to the capital raising price? That's quite likely as shareholders flip the heads and keep the oppies. What will the price of copper do over the rest of 2023, early 2024? (I still remain bearish/cautious about the global economy).
What percentage of the Nifty project NPV is CYM going to trade at over the next twelve months during restart? Take 1.2B shares fully diluted and a AU$277 NPV equates to 23c a share. The share price is already in orphan phase at around 50% of stated project NPV. Whether it will get a lift on finance is questionable. It might stay down here until production is confirmed. It might take until we are through commissioning and the market is confident of our production cost figures.
In short, for me, it's not the going forward that is of concern. I think Cyprium is going to be a great medium term hold and copper project developer. The question for me to reflect on is whether it was worth holding this prior to FID.
