This is a very speculative guesstimate, assumes that in next 10 months ALM develops an Inferred / Indicated Resource of 800MT at 2.25% cu (my guesstimate). Equates to 1.8 million tonnes of cu. Assume sale price of US$4.00 lb for copper and ASIC of US$2.5 lb for EBITDA of US$148,500,000 / A$207,900,000 per year (from 45,000 tpa of cu concentrate). Assume MC is 5x - 10x EBITDA for MC of A$1-2B in 2027-2028. Data drawn from CVV feasibility studies on similar type of ore body. Conclusion is extremely speculative, please be warned. CVV went from 5 cents to 60 cents / 10x original capitalization, as discovery was developed. ALM owns 15.3M shares in CVV at 30c valued at A$4.7M, so if CVV doubles (IMHO high probably) then shares are worth $A$9.4M, sufficient to significantly advance development of Briggs which has significant upside for further discoveries and upgrades to 800MT guesstimate. Good luck to all longs.
ALM Price at posting:
1.3¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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