XJO (ASX) 30/1 Indices

Originally posted by redbacka: ↑

4/2/2023. Finspiration Saturday Morning Report.

U.S. Friday's Job Report: Unemployment rate in U.S. falls to lowest since 1969.

Friday Stocks: Oz up, US down, UK all time high, Commodities down.

Yesterday in Australia.

Yesterday, XJO surged higher +0.63%. RSI is overbought at 73.9. That's the highest level in more than twelve months. That suggests we've seen a phase shift from bearish to bullish phases. It would, however, seem to me to be unwise to be buying at this level. It would also, however, be unwise to sell until we see definite signs of a pull-back. Condition: HOLD.

Take a look at the chart below for XJO over the past twelve months. Overlaid on the chart are two sets of Bollinger Bands, both with a mid-point of the 20-DMA but Standard Deviations of 1SD and 2SD:

Zone between +1SD and +2SD is a bullish zone. Zone between -1SD and -2SD is a bearish zone. Between +1SD and -1SD is No Man's Land.
XJO can stay in the bullish zone for long periods of time. A "sell" signal is usually generated when (1) MACD Histogram falls below zero (it is almost there now) and, (2) the Index breaks below the mid-line of the Bollinger Bands (20-DMA). (Unless, of course, you are a short-term trader where different conditions apply). XJO is still well above the 20-DMA. Wait.
In the U.S.

Dow Jones -0.38%. SP500 -1.04%. Nasdaq -1.59%. Small Caps -0.38%. Banks -0.3%.

SP500.

The long upper wick on the most recent candle indicates a volatile session, going higher than lower. Plenty of intra-day selling. The Jobs Report in the U.S. was very good - the market went up, then reconsidered (higher interest rates), then went down.

Commodities - smashed.

Commodities Index -2.52%. Energy -3.23%. Base Metals -2%. Agriculture -0.55%. Gold -2.5%.

BHP in NY -0.7%, Rio in NY -0.59%

None of this is looking good for the XJO on Monday.

Bitcoin.

Bitcoin was down -0.62% last night. It continues in it s consolidation pattern, floating around the 200-Day MA.

It is currently finding support of the Conversion Line of the Ichimoku System. A break below that would probably see a test of the Base Line. Wait.

Expand

"Commodities Index -2.52%. Energy -3.23%. Base Metals -2%. Agriculture -0.55%. Gold -2.5%.
BHP in NY -0.7%, Rio in NY -0.59%
None of this is looking good for the XJO on Monday."

No, no, no, no, no, no, NO!
BHP (NYSE) -0.7%
BHP (ASX) +0.6%

RIO (NYSE) -0.6%
RIO (ASX) +0.9%

Woodside (Nasdaq) -0.3%
Woodside (ASX) +1.2%

WHY!

The revenues of all of the above companies are in USD
Better than expected jobs data in the US on Friday, sparked further inflation fear, resulting in higher US bond yields and the appreciation of the USD against all major currencies (including the AUD)

All of the above companies earn all their revenues in USD. Therefore from an Australian investors' perspective BHP's cashflows are now much more valuable. Last week your BHP dividend bought one coffee, today it buys you one coffee AND ONE ANZAC BISCUIT.

@Whalewatcher
Is BHP The Big Australian or The Big American?
Its both.
Same as VGS
SP500 down, ASX 200 down, VGS up (Those Apple shares are worth as much as they did before the jobs data plus ONE ANZAC BISCUIT.