Ann: PEP 11 Update, page-160

I think too many are over analysing this. Me, I like to fall back on motives to simplify things.

If there was a decent chance PEP 11 would've been rejected by the JA on legitimate concerns, why would Scott Morrison go through so much trouble swearing himself in secretly to undermine the license? I would go so far as to argue that the secret Ministries was a cover for him canning PEP 11, since it was the only time he used his secret Ministerial powers, and most likely the only time he planned to do so. I reckon he had never planned to make emergency decisions to override the other Ministers. Not only that, would the rejection from the JA have mattered if Keith Pitt was likely to approve it anyway? He's shown great enthusiasm for renewing PEP 11 over the years.

As for financing issues, since when has money ever been an issue for any profitable endeavour in history? If there is Gas there, and there most likely is, the money will follow. I don't believe BPH and Advent is so incompetent as to be chasing PEP 11 for years now if there wasn't a high likelihood they'd find Gas. There was a strong Bearish case for PEP 11 when Scott Morrison openly rejected it, and I was actually ready to give up on it, but now I think the bears are grasping at straws, because there is more reason for it to go through than not.

Now of course, I could be wrong about all of this and BPH could go to zero by the end of this year, but investing is all about speculating wisely and taking calculated risks. If you do nothing, you'll make no money. Simplify, don't over-complicate, it will make both life and investing much easier overall.