Hey H,
Obviously I've pulled the 3 months YoY from the last TmD filing in the US. In your analysis at the top - you've added an addition $20m to existing expenditure for selling the new products. This is highlighted in the CEO update as being additional expenditure on S&M for Nextstellis as this drug is still in the rollout phase (as pushed down our throats by the board)
There is no estimate on selling costs for the new products despite the TmD S&M being basically 100% of sales revenue in their filing (reported and copied into my post as 9 months and i've done a div/3).
Surely the S&M from TmD isn't $0 for MYX.
There WILL be synergies; there needs to be - otherwise WHY THE FK waste our money and purchasing drugs that are not profitable and have declining revenue?
Especially - and the kicker - when the main drug, the revolutionary drug, is a competitor to something investors have been told was the bee's knee's for years - our miracle Nuvaring Haloette (there went another stack of checks and equity to Mithra!)
If we are saving us$20m a 1/4 on S&M of the TmD products - AWESOME PURCHASE from day dot and the market is in for a shock when estimates are announced (not going to be the case unfortunately)!!! Whilst some savings is a given and a must; the best case is completely unrealistic. You have existing professionals, networks and marketing material that is already out there; also a significant cost associated with reprinting and rebranding (initially IMO there will be slightly higher costs as these products are integrated). This includes ordering and manufacturing processes, onboarding of ex TmD staff etc.
The history and experience with MYX is that .... (insert your own opinion of how well this will go and how much they will save)
Remembering that ANNOVERA's big call to fame is that it lasts a year; so let's assume 1/12 of all customers has rebought in the last month. You still need an aggressive sales team out there pushing this thing - definitely can not afford to drop the ball.
Despite comments from various rampers that MYX was building this revolutionary sales force that removes the middle-man etc - and this was going to explode revenues etc. There is no evidence to show that they have anything that is working well or scaling as suggested. In fact - we have 75 full time women's product S&M people out there with us$4.3m (Jul-Oct) revenue for Nextstellis. Comments in the CEO update of inventory issues with Nexstellis (probably because of their fk up over estimates they have 000,000,000's of pills expiring and worthless). Facts of issues with supply, demand, competition, inventory control and down right confusion with dermotology (-$22m in revenue!!!! - how do you have negative revenue without it being a complete ckup).
That last paragraph also puts doubt that all of the S&M expenses are included in the below.
(20min delay)