To be honest I'm not too sure 3Q F23 will be that exciting for PBH.
I'll get a lot of hate for this post but the numbers are what they are and this is not opinion. I've just done a brief look at PBH reported financials and this is why I'm so down on these guys. I've focused only on their US OSB since that is their core business and what they are selling as the dream.
Using their published quarterly numbers from FY21 Q2 through to FY23 Q2 I've removed the impacts of FX, which has recently moved in their favour. I've removed FX it to better understand their underlying numbers which gives me a better feel for the business. I'm only focused on USD. PBH reports in AUD and I have used their published FX to convert to USD.
The below represents their quarterly gross win in USD (millions)--despite growing the live states 140% (5 to 12) their USD gross win has seen absolutely no growth since Q3 FY21! They even went live in NY in Q3 FY22 and as you can see that has hardly had any impact on their gross win.
But for me--and I hope time will prove me wrong--I'm not exactly bursting with hope that the super-bowl will deliver PBH a transformative quarter. At best I'm not expecting gross win of more than $40 mill tops.
PBH has invested so much capital into growing their US footprint--and what has it delivered to shareholders? flat gross win and massive increase in expenses. Other than some speculative hope, I'm not seeing a lot in their numbers to suggest they are executing the right US OSB strategy.
Anyone thinks my numbers are wrong--go check PBH quarterlies as it's all there.
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