2023-24 Harvest Updates

As graingrowers make decisions about April 2023 plantings, let's kick off discission for the 2023 winter crop with this extract from 'The Australian' that should be in the print edition of Friday 9 February 2023:

"...RaboResearch general manager Australia and New Zealand Stefan Vogel – the Rabobank report’s lead author – said prices for agriculture commodities are set to track at less elevated levels in 2023, but still “well above the five-year average”.

He said the next 12 months were likely to “deliver good, but not record, prices in an environment of elevated costs and global recession”.

“Favourable weather conditions in 2022 – with much of the east coast having received plentiful rainfall, even too much in some cases – have provided good soil moisture levels and also filled supplies for irrigation,” Mr Vogel said.

“While the rainfall outlook for 2023 isn’t as high, this should also mean less weather disruptions for the sector. This sets the scene for another positive year of farm production in 2023, however a repeat of 2022’s abundant grain and fodder production is not – at least yet – expected.”

Mr Vogel said cost pressures continued to weigh on the farm sector, remaining above historic averages, with the exception of global fertiliser prices, which are now down 40 to 50 per cent from their peak.

“A return to the highs seen in fertiliser prices last year is unlikely,” he said, “but besides supply and demand, gas and grain prices need to be watched carefully to determine the ultimate direction of fertiliser prices.”

Freight rates for both dry containers and bulk have fallen “massively” back to normal levels as recession fears weigh on the trade outlook..."