juniors miners get their chance - article

Juniors miners get their chance in iron ore bonanza

Sarah-Jane Tasker From: The Australian April 26

A NEW wave of mining entrepreneurs are fast becoming serious players in the competitive Pilbara iron ore region, leading the charge for the next tier of producers.

With iron ore prices soaring to record levels this year and the Chinese continually knocking on Australian miners' doors to secure their future supplies of the steel feed, Atlas Iron, BC Iron and Brockman Resources are among the juniors attracting strong investor interest.

Brockman Resources managing director Wayne Richards said the country's iron ore industry dominated by Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton was one of the last sectors exclusively held by a duopoly.

He said demand and economics in the iron ore sector dictated it should now be a multiple companies industry.

"While iron ore was driven by infrastructure and commodity prices which kept the high volume, low-cost producers in the game the pendulum has moved and it is now a case that iron ore prices caught up with the value weighted average of the price, making it an industry where other groups can be profitable," Mr Richards said. "It was always a duopoly but now it has the opportunity to become a true competitive and broad spectrum commodity, which is no different to coal."

Such is the demand, Brockman last week signed an offtake agreement with China's largest importer of iron ore, Sinosteel, in a deal that could be worth more than $US6 billion ($6.4bn).

Ocean Equities analyst Sam Spring said the development and potential opening up of infrastructure in Western Australia's vibrant Pilbara iron ore region provided the foundation for the next tier of miners.

Infrastructure is crucial for any new mine and the juniors now have a window of opportunity to negotiate on good terms with the majors, as BHP and Rio Tinto try to convince regulators of their contentious $US116bn iron ore joint venture. "The ability of smaller companies to agree favourable terms with BHP and Rio will be greatly enhanced if the proposed iron ore JV is approved and there is a revision to existing state agreements to enact third party rail access/haulage," Mr Spring said.

"In our view the implications of the proposed JV are extremely positive for the Pilbara iron ore juniors and their ability to agree third party rail access."

Iron ore has been a hotly debated topic this year, with the jailing of Rio Tinto executives in China after being found guilty of accepting bribes and stealing commercial secrets during the annual pricing talks and the dramatic change in iron ore contracts.

While the spotlight has been shone on the three major producers Brazil's Vale, Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton it is the junior sector that has been a hive of activity, with deals being finalised and projects developed.

Atlas Iron has taken the lead in the next tier of producers and has been bulking up through a series of acquisitions.

The Pilbara miner made a $143 million bid in March for junior Aurox Resources to create a $1.13 billion company.

Its recent move followed last September's $65m all-scrip bid for Warwick Resources, three months after Warwick had bought Hannans Reward's iron ore tenements.

Atlas Iron managing director David Flanagan said market appetite was driving the recent surge in activity and interest around the mid-tier sector.

"Perception is that iron ore is worth more, so the value of some companies goes up," he said. "There are also those who present near-term cashflow and they get interest because of potential profit growth and there are those in production who are right among it."

Mr Flanagan said real demand for steel and iron ore was also driving market sentiment in a sector that was not going to slow down soon.

"It's bloody fantastic but it's bloody hard work," he said.

BC Iron managing director Mike Young said the paradigm shift from US and European dominance in the market to Chinese dominance had provided the boost for new players to join the iron ore game.

"Juniors, particularly in Perth, have the ability to adapt quickly," he said. "There is that whole entrepreneurial spirit. You had this perfect storm of events that created this iron ore small cap and mid-cap sector."

Burrell Stockbroking's Peter Wright said the stars were aligning for the Pilbara juniors, with credit markets opening and a regulatory processes that seemed to be opening up infrastructure to these aspiring companies.

Andrew "Twiggy" Forrest has been fighting the majors for years to force them to allow third party access to their rail lines but BHP and Rio have continually appealed decisions made in Mr Forrest's favour.

"BHP and Rio are aware that global competition regulators are looking at them and they don't want to be seen to be pricing the smaller guys out of uncommercial haulage terms," Mr Wright said.

"So there is a window of opportunity for the emerging miners to negotiate on good terms.

"The issue for these smaller guys has rarely been about the resource it has been about the pathway to market and, as that process becomes less ambiguous, there is potential for these quantum leaps in value of these miners."

Brockman's Mr Richards said this year was the year for the sector on the back of infrastructure access agreements, iron ore price rises and consolidation.

"This is the year of new projects, new consolidation, new ventures and joint ventures," he said. Recent commercial deals in the Pilbara mean Iron Ore Holdings and BC Iron are set to take the step from promising development plays to producers later this year.

BC Iron struck a joint venture deal with Fortescue for its Nullagine project and Iron Ore Holdings secured a mine gate sale agreement with Rio for its Phil's Creek deposit.

But Mr Spring said while several of the juniors had high-quality deposits, most would not successfully become independent producers due to limited infrastructure capacity, the capital costs to develop new infrastructure and the inability for most juniors to strike win-win commercial agreements with infrastructure providers.

Further consolidation among the juniors is expected because without it some of the hopefuls will not become producers and the majors are also tipped to be eyeing some of their smaller rivals.

BHP Billiton last year swallowed junior United Minerals Corporation in a $204 million deal and observers expect Rio to make a play for Kerry Stokes' Iron Ore Holdings, following recent agreements between the two.

"With the competition regulators closely observing the majors, the easiest thing for BHP and Rio to do would be to mop up these companies, then there is no issue with third party access because they own the projects," Mr Wright said.