XJO - Bear Posts only (Factors which might cause the markets to fall), page-8042

I wont post a reply to the video above as I don't want to get into arguments over its content. At least it is appropriate content for the bear thread.

The thing Cathie forgets is we have only had a 15 month inflation problem but the monetary stimulus has been going for 15 years. It is finally catching up with the shocks as she mentions. The massive stimulus has caused the inflation I agree, but to curtail this the Fed should now withdraw that recent stimulus money from the system.

I wonder what that would do

This thread has mentioned many times that the low base of interest rates is going to have a larger impact on any increases as everyone was already up to their necks in debt and now over their heads.

As to the USD comments, what has happened in the last couple of days is not what Cathie mentions. The USD is getting stronger again. In the other video from that other economist he mentioned that there will be a surge of buying into US Treasuries and to buy those you can only use USD. This is the more likely situation and therefore everyone is moving into safety again (but again this isn't shown in the bond yields). Confusing signals all over in this regard.

I wonder how many know that the US has defaulted on their debts several times over the years

There seems to be various discrepancies in relation to whether these were defaults or not. So not standing by the validity of it.






Cathie mentions the car debt as a major problem. But I read that a similar system (MBS) to what caused the housing crisis and collapse in the US is actually still going on but this time with businesses there.

Its ABS (Asset Backed Securities). It appears to not be as large as the housing market at the time but significant enough to cause ripples in the system. US Asset Backed Securities Statistics - SIFMA - US Asset Backed Securities Statistics - SIFMA

The good thing is this is down 50% YoY but has increased 3% over the last quarter (maybe as other forms of debt start to dry up).

She did provide some interesting points and highlights why the markets are not in a strong position to weather what is to come soon.