I'm big on lithium and have been for the last couple of years.
Everybody is under the realization that Li price will plummet, hence the price used in most feasibility studies is $18k-24k for carbonate when lithium price is in reality has been around $65-70k. Spoodumene concentrate has been sold as high as $8500 but Long term price is around $1300-$2300. Li miners will still be extremely profitable at those low prices, as shown in their low opex / multiple billion dollar NPVs at LTP forecasts.
Demand is also said to increase as more supply comes online. There are hydroxide plants waiting to be built, gigafactories waiting to be built which can't get supply. Add to that If somehow enough supply quickly come online and demand eases, then projects at the high end of the opex, and capex, will be further delayed, less capital investment deployed, which in turn takes away some of the factored-in supply as development is slowed.
Goldman Sachs etc have included non battery grade suppy. They have also included Lepidolite, an impure lower grade lithium mineral, that requires a lot of energy to process, creates a lot more harmful tailings and is all round bad for the environment. Important to note that while they have included supply from lepidolite coming online, it really needs Li prices this high to be profitable. Most of these deposits are in China and one of the biggest Chinese companies Ganfeng is making deals for off takes, investing in JVs, anywhere BUT China. That's more BS that GS are spinning.
Not to mention permitting, financing, commissioning and qualifying of product is notoriously slow. GS assumes all near time projects will come online when planned which is rarely the case. The truth is also Goldman putting out this info and then buying back Lithium companies..
Copper can't really be substituted at all. Spodumene vs lepidolite is similar to copper vs aluminum. Energy a big factor. You are correct about the HV transmission lines.
Cobalt is getting slowly phazed out.
Nickel is only needed in long range vehicles, a smaller market as many people realize they travel a short distance everyday. Day to day vehicles will be lithium phosphate LFP, not containing nickel or Cobalt.
Both however contain lithium. Lithium won't be substituted by Sodium etc as it takes years, decades to develop and refine technology to a stage it can be reliably used.
I would have thought copper would have run more already. How long have we been hearing about supply shortages, disruptions, no discoveries, low inventories, etc. Graphite also being one that hasn't really taken off.
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