Banter and general comments, page-22414

Yes, we all realise that Santa ain't real, but we continue to buy each other presents because it is tradition, even though we know it is a Hoax. Santa is the definition of capitalism, and we as a society continue to spend more year after year on something that we know is real. Its engraved in us for the backbone of our economy. Imagine what would happen if we all stopped, knowing it is a hoax? However, I agree there might be a time and place that we wake up and realise we are zombies in a capitalist world :> Is that when we become communist? :>)))

I think we are saying the same thing, but just articulating it differently. Charts is indeed about momentum and sentiment, but what causes that momentum and sentiment to change? Yes, the release of some bad news or possibility of bad news down the track plays its part. I am a long term holder, but by being careful of what the chart is saying, that influences my decision to buy and slows down or speeds up the momentum. I am only one, but if we have waves of others doing the same thing, does that not show up in the charts? The indication of the change in momentum, is then correlated to sentiment and to trader activity. If we look for the same thing, if we take notice of the same signals, what are we doing as a herd? This is why I articulated it with self-fulling prophesy. In large numbers, changes happen. In part, big money can and is used to influence that momentum and sentiment. That momentum, that change in sentiment, that chart price signal, provides a probability in price action that causes the trader to buy or sell. It may sound as if we have different points of view, but fundamentally it is the same. As a long term holder I am looking at the probability of what is the SP going to look like in 3 - 5 years based on fundamentals. The trader will look at the chart for the probability of what will the SP do in minutes, hours, or a couple of days.

Yes of course, that plays into the sentiment and momentum discussion above. If you can change the direction, you change the momentum, you change the sentiment, the chart then starts to show a difference in human behaviour. Chartist take note of this and make the most of it. The herd piles on, which is why as a long term holder you must accept that this happens and use it to your advantage.

In theory yes, but how many times does good news get ignored and the momentum goes down? Is that not what happened with CXO over the last few months. We had great news, but it has gone down with the sector. Has the bad news really resulted in the need for CXO share price to fall 50%, the lithium price, the greatest correlation has not fallen 50%, why have we? If CXO did release some good news today, it might bounce for a few days, but then if the rest of the sector continues to go down, would the price still not follow?

Anyway, I have to get back to work. This has been a great interaction. Thanks all, I have enjoyed the mental stimulation. For those reading if you agree with me or not, I hope it has made you think. It has made me think. All the best!