On the topic of when the build will be complete and commissioning commence:
Accorfing to ASX announcements, the project was:
- ~40% complete in early October at FID
- 50% complete as at 31st October
- 60% complete as at 30 November- 75% complete as at 31 January.
That means over the wet season they've been consistently completing approximately 10% every 30 days (adjusted for Christmas and New Year slow down and the one in 100 year cyclone).With 75% complete as at 31 January 2023, there was 25% left to go.
At current construction rates the plant could be largely completed in around 75 days from the end of January, which works out to be around the middle of April, 2023.
When looked at from this angle we see plant construction completion is closer than one may imagine when reading the company line that reiterates product delivery remains on target for Q1 2024.
Commissioning would typically start prior to 100% completion, which means it could start in March.
All going well we'll may be surprised with an announcement down the track that first shipment was achieved several months ahead of forecast (possibiy the reason for the accelerated pre production activities and expenditure recently announced).
On this basis, catalysts for price movements are not so far away.
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