There's two reasons why I think it is a delaying tactic.
1. These are pretty much the exact same conditions as 3 years ago and Lynas chose not to challenge then (making any challenge now difficult).
2. They are making an administrative appeal to the Minister for non-Science and Technology. He is the same one trumpeting 'radioactive waste' and how it would be around 'forever'. He is also good mates with YBY who hates Lynas. Chances of him changing his mind at this stage are zero.
It is possible that Lynas are setting up for a high court appeal and that this is the first stage of the process. However, any appeal would be a very lengthy and costly process where it would be very difficult to succeed against a government mandate (and Malaysian law is hardly the pinnacle of justice).
In addition, Lynas is now in a far better position than 3 years ago.
Kalgoorlie is almost finished and they don't need Malaysia for that part of the business anymore in the future.
Obviously it would be ideal to keep using Malaysia as well to increase supply, but Lynas are probably better off temporarily closing that part of the plant until the political winds change.
Unfortunately Kalgoorlie is unlikely to be completed by July 2023 and given the Malaysian Government says that Lynas cannot continue to crack and leach past July 2023, this is a problem.
Accordingly, I'd imagine that this appeal process would be part of a plan for a negotiated delay whilst the proceedings are on foot. This will hopefully allow Lynas to complete the Kalgoorlie plant with no interruption to supply. The Malaysian Government could still keep face by allowing a temporary delay until the Kalgoorlie plant is complete and then tell everyone that they stayed firm and forced Lynas not to allow any more radioactive waste in Malaysia moving forward.
Obviously, Lynas can't come out and say this. Time will see how this all plays out.
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