Re: this conspiracy of the BEOT, our CEO and RIO working in cahoots to tank the SP for takeover... Can I point out the obvious, the BEOT has shorted us 10% and continues to short CXO at these low prices.
if there was a takeover offer the price would immediately shoot up to within a few percent of the offer price. Assuming this $1.50 figure being thrown around, that means the shorts would be in the red 50% almost instantaneously.
With 10% of all outstanding shares shorted they are at >10 days to cover. A take over offer would inevitably trigger a short squeeze, which would likely see the SP go well above the offer price - not only stuffing over the shorters but the potential buyer of CXO (RIO in the case of this conspiracy), as which shareholder would agree to an offer at $1.50 when the current SP exceeds the offer price?
Unless I'm missing something, none of this conspiracy makes any sense whatsoever. So please take off your tinfoil hats.
Also, while I would personally love to hear more about the project, I don't think the lack of announcements is driving our SP in any meaningful way. The largest Lithium companies in the world are down, including Albemarle that was down 10% on Friday, only 2 days after a massively positive price sensitive announcement.
Now while all producers, or near producers, are down significantly - explorers are up and are being backed by some very big players. IF the lithium price was about to tank, heavily risked explorers who aren't financed and won't produce for at least 7 years should be as good as worthless. Yet the market is prescribing companies like PMT, which hasn't released a maiden resource and won't produce until 2030, a very similar market cap to CXO. That is a clear contradiction.
If you allow me to borrow your tinfoil hat and propose an alternative theory. I think the currently negative industry sentiment is largely driven by the big boys in China playing silly buggers using the conveniently timed end of national subsidies, COVID and seasonal holidays to bolster a scare campaign designed to help them secure lower downstream prices.
If I was CATL, the largest Lithium battery maker in the world, and I wanted to lower my costs I would spend months stockpiling excess battery inventory and raw materials then, a couple of months before national subsidies as known to expire, conveniently at the same time as the first Luna New Year post years of COVID restrictions, a holiday which traditionally sees a significant drop in consumer spending, I'd release/leak a prediction that prices are about to nose dive. I'd then slow down my production in line with the leak (and as I have always done over previous holiday periods except 2022) and reduce my purchase of raw material, instead opting to run off my accumulated inventory.
The combination of these factors would cause a self fulfilling prophecy and prices (which I, as a third of the market, largely control) would drop temporarily. Exploiting this temporary lul, I'd try to lock in long term prices and contracts before the inevitable market recovery and my inventories deplete.
Interestingly, all of this is happening and China's known stockpiles (which are inherently oblique) are reported to be at a low. CATL is currently trying to lock in long term contracts and Macquarie research shows foot traffic in EV dealerships are up, and are predicting an increase in sales of 10% for Feb (MoM).
Our BEOT are not as stupid as they let on. I fully expect that they are aware of the incoming supercycle and are positioning themselves for that. They are just taking advantage of the BS being fed to them to lower their entry point.
If you wanted any more confirmation about the importance of these materials, look no further than today leak out of Reuters that the US is about to announce a national strategic battery mineral stockpile. This puts lithium along side oil and medicine (and Helium but that's another story).
So, if you think the unverifiable rumour file has better information than major companies such as Tesla, Ford and LG or the US government - you should bail on CXO. I'll be holding on until the same people who told us Lithium is heading to zero inevitably tell us it's the next big thing (again).
My opinion only, DYOR.
(20min delay)