Banter and general comments, page-22820

A long-term comparison to "peers".




As many experts have said, the current climate will favour producers or those near to production. We are also at the mercy of the Li chemical price which has been on the decline. The most recent commentary out of China (via Platts) states:

Chinese battery-grade lithium carbonate was heard to have traded at as low as Yuan 416,000/mt in the week to Feb. 17 as downstream activity slowed amid high inventory levels.Platts assessed battery grade lithium carbonate at Yuan 430,000/mt on Feb. 17, on a delivered, duty-paid China basis, down Yuan 8,000/mt on the day, and down Yuan 23,000/mt on the week.

Mainstream tradable levels were heard lower to last week levels at Yuan 420,000-450,000/mt, with spot trades edging closer to Yuan 430,000/mt.“Downstream demand is weak at the moment as NEV production is slowing down, everybody has sufficient inventory, hence the lack of buying interest," a Chinese producer said. "Prices moving forward will be dependent on whether downstream activity recovers, hopefully recovery in March will be around 70%-80%," the producer added, while sharing a muted outlook for lithium salt prices in Q1."We expected the market to get better after the Chinese New Year, but seems like prices have just been freefalling the past two weeks as the EV market has been terrible," a Chinese consumer said

Prices for lithium carbonate have fallen over Yuan 80,000/mt, or 16%, since the start of the year.The majority of market sources surveyed shared a similar sentiment, with most expecting prices to bottom out near the Yuan 400,000/mt mark, though some market participants painted a more grim view with the Q1 price seen closer to the mid-Yuan 300,000/mt mark."The NEV sector is not doing well now, only expect it to get better from March onward and only recover in Q2," a Chinese trader said."January sales were bad because of the Chinese New Year, with BYD slashing prices in February, hopefully other EV makers will follow suit if demand is bad again in February,.... I expect Q1, maybe Q2, to be challenging with prices to go to [Yuan]300,000/mt," another Chinese trader said while sharing a muted outlook for the market.

Sources, however, were still largely hopeful about the market coming back by late Q2 with expectations for a strong finish in the second half. Tradable values of battery-grade lithium hydroxide were supported by less volatile seaborne demand, with market participants generally pegging prices between Yuan 440,000-460,000/mt in the week to Feb. 17.Platts assessed battery grade lithium hydroxide at Yuan 450,000/mt Feb. 17, on a delivered, duty-paid China basis, down Yuan 5,000/mt on the day, and down Yuan 15,000/mt on the week."The spot market for hydroxide was smaller in China and producers are operating at lower capacity," a Chinese consumer said, adding prices are higher due to low availability and competition from North Asia.

Platts assessed spodumene concentrate with 6% lithium oxide content (SC6) at $5,300/mt FOB Australia on Feb. 17, down $200/mt on the week.Tradable values were indicated at $5,000-$6,000/mt on an FOB Australia basis in the week to Feb. 17, with prices expected to dip as downstream lithium salt prices continue to fall.Pilbara, a major supplier of spodumene, was heard to have postponed a recent tender amid poor sentiment from salt producers."Prices have fallen greatly for lithium salt, I think demand is bad with spot availability heard to be back, therefore I think high prices will not be accepted in this market," a Chinese trader said.