Sorry, have been busy lately. Yes, I managed to listen once while doing some other stuff. I might have missed something (need to listen again) but right now nothing springs to mind that would stands out as extraordinary.
However, saying that I'm happy to share a few thoughts I have so far.
In my view report was reasonably good with an exception that I think they did not provide much certainty and have put too much emphasis on how volatile chinese market is and seems that was perceived as negative signal toward future progress. I was expecting more mute reaction from the market and was a bit surprised by selldown as if company issued another massive downgrade.On another hand I was equally surprised on Friday when price shoot up on relatively uneventful and expected news. To me this shows that currently traders are in full control of share price and playing any news to their advantages.Same old scaremongering came into full swing after the report. Uncertainty around SAMR remains as main concern of all sort of fund managers as well as possible provision write offs, political tensions, birth rate, market falling apart, daigou are dead and so on.
Personally, I'm pretty sure SAMR will be obtained before FY ends.
DB mentioned that at this stage they do not expect any significant stock write off during china label transition. But seems like citi were not happy with that answer and now predicting massive write off.However, my view is bigger write offs would indicate more successful transition as any unsold old label would mean it was replaced by new one. But, it's not like I like write offs, better without them
It was mentioned that company ramped up production from December till cut off date which is tomorrow.
Last HY daigou were significantly affected by lockdowns and it might take time for their any meaningful return, but not in this HY anyway. Personally, I do not think daigou will ever be the same as before covid.
Seems the company taking it's time on decision how to enter IF market in the states. And I would say it makes some sense. First of all, lately they were busy with chinese label production. Second, seems other participating companies so far show very little success and high expenses. It won't be logical to add extra losses to US region right now while they are on path to profitability.Third, and this is speculation on my behalf, I think they might look at possibility to join WIC first. That will pretty much guarantee profitability from day one. Or at least establish more or less stable channels of sale.
Anyway, once SAMR approval received and china label transition started, US IF decision is made we will have much more certainty and less scaremongering. I'll give it 4-6 months.
And one more, unless something extraordinary (some big acquisition for instance) happens by FY report date, I expect another round of share buy back to be announced of similar size.
PS. That increase of export in January 23 you have mentioned was compared to January 22. But it's quite down to compare to previous (December 22) month. Will look at it later
(20min delay)