Todays announcement gives rise to more questions than answers! My list:
- What are the financial implications for AQZ - there is likely to be more flying hours on the additional 12 aircraft than the status quo but presumably at a much less profitable rate per hour than FIFO or charters flying?
- Can AQZ hire and train enough pilots to cover these additional flying hours?
- The potential extension of the current three year options on each E190 utilised by QAN is presumably a good sign for AQZ (i.e. it won't necessarily need to find another use for the aircraft starting from 2025)
- How long does QAN have to exercise the options on the 12 aircraft - is AQZ going to have to turn down other opportunities because QAN may exercise an option, only for it to transpire that QAN doesn't want all 12 additional aircraft?
- Is this a move by QAN to sure up their position on access to the aircraft on the expectation that the ACCC will deny clearance to buy AQZ?
- Given we have QAN and Rex (via Cobham) seeking to boost their WA FIFO fleets, does tying up virtually all of the E190 fleet impinge on AQZ to expand their WA FIFO business? Is the QAN deal a better outcome for AQZ than sending these aircraft to WA for FIFO work?
- Previous E190 fleet deployment details had 3 of the 33 aircraft in maintenance at any one time. So leasing 30 aircraft to QAN means that all E190's are fully employed on this wet lease deal. How will AQZ cover to non-QAN flying currently undertaken with the E190's? Is the dry lease of three E190's to AirNorth also continuing?
- AQZ had previously announced that F100's would be withdrawn from Adelaide (and replaced with E190's) to free up two F100's for other opportunities? Is this still going ahead?
- All this begs the question whether AQZ intends to purchase additional E190's. Given the balance sheet is currently stretched, arguably this would need to involve a further capital raise. Assume the question is parked until the ACCC deliver their decision.
- If the ACCC do give QAN the go ahead, we'll get to see an Independent Expert's opinion with some financial projections. The financial implications of today's announcement will no doubt need to be updated in arriving at an assessment of fair value.
It would be great is AQZ could put out a presentation covering off the implications of the latest QAN deal!
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- Ann: Alliance increases and extends E190 deal with QANTAS
Ann: Alliance increases and extends E190 deal with QANTAS, page-6
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