If you go to page 11 of their 1H23 results presentation they forecast $ 2 billion in sales by 2026 at a compound annual growth rate of 8.5%.
Thus net profit (earnings per share) relative to sales will only increase 1 - 2 % per year.
So if we accept EPS .25 cents (which is far too generous) for year ending 30 June 23 and increase EPS by 5% ( which is far too generous) for year ending 30 June 24 ( i.e. 1.2 cents) then EPS for year ending 30 June 24 will be .262 cents.
If I pay $7 for a share on 1 July 2023 my return for the next year will be .262 cents divided by $7 = 3.7%, which is low.
This is why most brokers have very low valuations on a2.
Also the paying of a dividend is irrelevant to share price. Its does not matter if EPS is retained in the company or paid as a dividend. Some people will argue paying a dividend is actually a negative because it indicates the company has limited investment / growth opportunities.
I think we all need to see a2m for what it is. Great company, great product, great management but a long hard road ahead to win then hold market share. And hopefully pull back on marketing expenditure to improve EPS.
A2M Price at posting:
$6.40 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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