PLL General Discussion, page-943

Depends on PoV I guess. Ana is smart. SGML will be over 500Ktpy of SC6 in no time. Grota do Cirilo is huge (and very green/ESG focused).

I read the SA OPEC story as a "less exporting of mineral" and "more capturing greater value from the supply chain" - sound familiar?

Nothing different to what Canada and especially Quebec is saying. They have not go as far as export restrictions or even export taxes (there's an investment killer). OPEC was a cartel of producers attempting to restrict supply of a global commodity to control price (because they - middle eastern producers - controlled the low cost/high margin source of supply). Oil was never scarce either. Cheap oil was. Rare Earths aren't rare either - commercially developable sources are. Lithium is certainly abundant - its in sea water - but not so abundant in commercial supply. CHEAP CAPITAL makes "marginal" supplies producable (shale oil/gas anybody remember that boost in production and resultant supply response to a market where demand is relatively flat to slightly growing at 2%). ZIRP made lots of things possible. That's being corrected as we see now.

The SA OPEC for lithium ... now where would one prefer the supply chain. Just like Australia (and Canada) all the major mineral producers want to capture more of value in the supply chain. Brine produces a "refined product" (Carbonate) so the next step for them is to not export but produce CAM and then go to Batteries and then EVs themselves. Brazil is a major manufacturer of Autos in its own right. I think Brazil/Chile/Argentina/Bolivia can easily attract invest ... away from Asia probably ... to go to those steps.

I think China's desire is NOT to sell batteries to non-China world. They want to sell the end Autos. They want in EVs what GM/Ford/Daimler/VW etc had in ICEs. If you look at the way they have tied up supply from SA (OTA and asset ownership), Africa (OTA and asset ownership) and Australia (mostly just OTA) they are well on their way.

Margin is what makes money (and don't we know that). Not sure I agree with her statement "it’s a volume market, not a margin market. Just as iron ore, lithium is abundant, and low-cost producers will do incredibly well," - Margins matter and given the demand curve is ahead of the supply curve for this decade (there may be points in time where the market is balanced given demand constraints) then all volume is sold and the part I agree with - the low cost producers will do well.

I hope the SA producers work together with good government and good policy decisions - theres huge Chinese influence there already though.