it is not even so much as hard work,it presupposes that someone knows something.
Look at property in OZ.
12 months ago many bears (myself included) would have thought property would collapse.
It didn't,it went up by 20%.
It may seem illogical that it could go up but it did.
If you could short property you would have been skun alive.
The markets are the same.
No one knows.
I know from years of experience that not many people ever catch those big moves (1000) points down days.
I didn't catch it,I went long the day before and I am one of the bigger bears around the joint.
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