coeur - au & ag in the americas

From another site.........


On April 7th, Coeur issued a press release which included data on its progress at Palmarejo and San Bart. I posted my interpretation of that data in a post the following day:

http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Business_%26_Finance/Investments/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_C/threadview?bn=3268&tid=289900&mid=289900

At this point I have no reason to expect anything significantly different. So, in summary, I'm predicting the following:

1. Q1 weakness at San Bart will be largely offset by minor improvement at Palmarejo. Increased gold production at Palmarejo will basically offset the impact of lower average silver prices in Q1 vs. Q4. Translation -- I expect Q1 revenue to be at basically the same level as Q4. The analysts are expecting revenue improvement of approx 3% ($101 million vs. $98 million), but I'm not quite as bullish.

2. The lower operating costs at the major mines will result in somewhat improved Operating Income.

3. Operating Cash Flow will probably show improvement vs. Q4, but it's really hard to predict this given the possible variables in receivables and inventory. Given Coeur's obligation to deliver more than 20,000 ounces of gold in the next few months under its Mitsubishi gold lease facility, Coeur may have begun the process of stockpiling gold during the quarter, which would impair not only Q1 cash flow, but would impair revenue as well.

4. The decline in the price of gold at March 31 vs. December 31 will result in a substantially lower loss on derivatives.

5. Reported net income, primarily due to lower operating costs and the reduced losses on derivatives, will show improvement vs. Q4.

and lastly:

6. The numbers for the quarter will NOT be blowout numbers. However, the guidance for Q2 (which will reflect much higher production at San Bart and Palmarejo, as well as an update on the upcoming gold production at Kensington) will be VERY positive, likely triggering upward movement in the stock price.