Agree mate, probably wasn't the best example. I guess what we are looking at is a similar situation. Lets say we have.....
3 dice.
3 rolls to hit a six.
no. 1 dice has 3 sixes marked on it.
no. 2 dice has 1 six marked on it.
no. 3 dice has 1 six marked on it.
At the outset we have a good chance of successfully hitting that six, which is where the 71% probability comes into play. However if the first dice has been rolled unsuccessfully i fail to see how the odds of the second two lower chance dice know the first was unsuccessfully and obligingly roll over to six, this is an if and creates a variable to the equation. I absolutely agree with the equation that dave and yourself put forward, i guess my question is though is it open to variables once the first well has been successful or not?
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