Pen General Discussion, page-210

the spot market is a defunct market and does not represent the level LT contracts are being signed now. In reality it is where only a desperate seller goes and we know from SPUT there is very little volume availability. SPOT will move aggressively when utilities are unable to buy LT contracts because all available production is accounted for. We already know that CCJ and KAP have warned this is going to happen.

At present we know we are at the beginning of a very long bull cycle where demand this year and going forward significantly outstrips supply, it's not a question of 'if' prices go up but 'when'. SPOT prices however are guaranteed to significantly exceed todays level and probably over $200 / lb.

The timing will surprise many because when it goes it really will move fast, factors such as sanctions will just accelerate the move if they happen, if not it's just a patience game.

frustrating waiting but also the longer the stagnation the higher the reward