Isn't it a red flag that no one can agree on what metric to use, because management reporting is so deliberately wishy-washy?
For the purposes of the above statement alone, I mean the number that is "EBITDA" in the 4C quarterly reports, which matches up to the number they call "operating EBITDA" in the 4E annual statements. I think any serious bidder would not use this number though, they would be looking at something like what Tesserent calls "normalised net profit before tax" which for Tesserent was ~$10m last year and I think will be $10-11m this year, depending on how they wish to calculate it this time.
So an EV of around $80m to the upside.
$80m EV less $45m debt + $7m cash = $35m MC ./ 1.345b SOI = $0.031
You can extrapolate this out to FY24 or FY25
The assumptions in the above quick and dirty table are so unbelievably favorable it's a joke, and still the price targets look abysmal.
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