Lots of reasons given for Lynas drop. From "Noise" to evil entities like shorters and market makers doing it. Well it has dropped 44% since 4/4/2022 just under a year. With recent volume on drops that is not a few shorts on a little manipulation.
Now more important is the SAR came out on Monday 27 FEB. Fridays close was 8.50. SAR showed a 4M AUD drop in profits Since then there has been only good news, JARE investment. Yet stock is down to 6.58 -29% in about 2 weeks and look at the volume traded. . I have calculated the 2023 profits as being 30M to 50 M below 2022. what will that do to SP
I am not going to fill up pages with the calculations but will show them when people comment. Only reason is declining NdPrO prices. I am ignoring the increased expenses and taxes AL talked about in SAR CC.
So this drop was long after the license announcement.
if 4 M YOY caused 29% in 2 weeks what do you think 30 to 50 M will do YOY with AR?
There is only one thing that may save them. That is a massive increase in production Q3 & Q4 They have only ever reached the original name plate of 1500 KT NdPr in 4 Qs. 2 in 2019, 1 in Q3 2022 and Q2 of this year. I will believe NEXT rates 1800 KT when I see something better. You are welcome to believe whatever you want. At this point i will invest on patterns continuing and not believe in change till I see something happen. Will I miss the bottom? Absolutely! Look how many people have bought into false bottoms recently. I will probably be below them.
Many people think Lynas has a bright future. I absolutly agree. We will see pain before then. People that understand the real reasons it is going down will know when it is really going to change direction.
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2 | 4695 | 5.910 |
15 | 29598 | 5.900 |
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4 | 1756 | 5.880 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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