what's true value ?, page-97

Now thats the million $ question but back of a fag packet calcs would have somewhere around 2.8bn barrels (recoverability will be the big one here), I assume this estimate at the moment is based on low recoverability so upside possibly here, the 3D will help, but nothing will prove more until we drill, but............ if we work with 2.8bn barrels, 20% of that would be 560m barrels.

Historically many fields that were unappraised were sold for somewhere around $2 / barrel, so on that basis somewhere around US$1.1bn-$1.2bn. Though we would need to probably fund the 2nd well to get this (which I would expect us to do if the 1st is successful). We'd probably need around US$12m to do that, assuming some sort of spike to 2c-2.5c on successful drill results, then we would issue another 685m shares, taking SOI to around 8.2bn. Should a drill be successful I would expect institutions to be throwing money at PCL for the follow up well. The great thing being involved with a large oil company like WDS, or if it was Total or Shell etc is they have deep pockets and will move quickly. Look at how many rigs are being moved into Namibian waters, they will move quickly towards exploration / appraisal (it will still take years but much shorter than for the mid tier companies).

Using US$1.1-1.2bn, conversion rate of 70c to AUD and you'd get somewhere around 20c, based on 8.2bn SOI. They may issue more or less shares, who knows.

That to me is probably the absolute best case scenario and I'm not saying we will get this (please don't remortgage your house for this haha), but if the drill comes good, there are some big upside numbers out there, but don't listen to the $1 club. I just don't see how that would be even possible.