General Discussion AGY, page-13103

When the price goes down the shitter i always look back to fundamentals. Gives me a good nights sleep. ah yes.

Probably a whole bunch of shit i missed, but:
- i've got a net present value of $1.75 using the discounted cash flow method
- Valuations of $0.48, $2.24, $4.12 for 2,000, 12,000, 22,000 t.pa respectively (PE 10)

this is with a whole bunch of assumptions though -- including expansion to 12,000 t.p.a, and using the expected JORC increase to bring out another 10,000 expansion a few years thereafter.

The current life of mine is 16.5 years, i expect the JORC increase to support the 2nd 10,000 t.p.a expansion for roughly a continued 16.5 years life of mine at the 22,000 t.p.a rate.

If you like, you can copy my excel and do your own calculations with your own choice and interpretation of variables. You don't have to use mine and if you want to change it for your own info you can. Don't want any debates on the variables i've used please.

i've used the current Chinese Spot Price (yeah yeah i know, its not contract price, or ASIA price, but last time in 2018 the chinese spot price soon became the contract price, im not falling for that again...), and factored in long-term further declines from there.

This doesn't include anything from Tonopah.

Discounted Cash flow $1.75 (with discount rate 10%)
PE Ratio Method:

	Column 1	Column 2	Column 3	Column 4	Column 5
0	T.P.A	Profit	PE 5	PE 10	PE 15
1	2,000	$67,657,500	$0.24	$0.48	$0.72
2	12,000	$314,280,000	$1.12	$2.24	$3.36
3	22,000	$576,180,000	$2.06	$4.12	$6.18