Target $18.72, page-5054

@Alejandro1.

Thanks for puting forward your view. Always considered and informative.

I agree with your logic. Some small comments:

- nsw reservation scheme impact. I also assume it'll be extended in some form which results in financial impact. Hard to politicians giving anything back.
- are there any finance costs left?
- Werris Creek will close in 2024 reducing volume by 1.5mtpa. I'm not sure what CV value that represents. On the other hand Vickery may start small producing in 2024 as it ramps up.

I'm not sure what PE should apply to WHC. I see it more as a 10 years DCF analysis than a PE stock.

Investing involves a lot of weighing up the probability of possible outcomes. Seems to me that the coal price may still fall further, perhaps even back to it's long run average below $100 (or govt intervention or other downside factors kick in). But there's also plenty of potential upside outcomes too. And at todays price there's not much upside priced in, including weather (as others have posted).