Hi There,
Nothing massively differing in my opinion from Post #:
66795745.
"Spot pricing is a good proxy - but it's more important whether the REO meets the projected forecasts. If the REO pricing doesn't rise (big if), then IXR will likely need the refinery/sep facility bundled in. Similar to what most other developers are arriving at. The contingency to both those plans is progressing magnet recycling to commercial levels. noting that is expected to grow to around 40% of REO supplied products."Positives (when compared to SS);
-Ore Reserve is solid
-Only Stage 1 Production profile
-Capex Hurdle still relatively low
-Used a more realistic Sc credit (average 15tpa of LoM)
-5mtpa from day 1
Negatives
-Recoveries decreases (Using PH2 now to keep impurities low)
-AISC increased (largely driven by recovery decrease)
-Doesn't present scenario of ramping to 10mtpa
So to go back to my bolded point - my main takeaway and now what i foresee as the biggest risk to viability for the Makuutu Mine (not their refinery/magnet recycling business) is the REO pricing.
The FS assumes a REO basket price roughly double what the reported spot REO price is today (via SMM).
So there's a couple options;
1) The REO price increases as per forecast between now and Q4 2024 and the figures in the FS will reflect reality. The NPV's from the Sep/refinery facility are then a bonus.
2) The REO price does not increase as per forecast and the separation/refinery facility is now required to show attractive viability from mine to refined product based on lower than forecast REO prices.
So based on this FS alone and treated in isolation - it pretty much depends on what people believe the REO price will be come Q4 2024 or when IXR aim to be in production.
The refinery/Sep facility scoping study de-risks the aforementioned point because it will show their is more profit to be made in going further downstream and 'value add' on the products.
-Key news pieces now for me will be the MLA award, securing more than the 60% project ownership and the SS for downstream refinery and economics therein. Probably some other left stuff field that could come - but these are planned announcements.
SF2TH
(20min delay)