AIS - EW Chart, page-1734

Allstock, I was thinking the same. Our shorter is probably thinking that AIS will miss the Q3 targets again even though AL has said they are on target to meet FY23 guidance. You will know if this is going to occur, AIS will drop an exploration announcement or something which will be slightly positive a few days before their ASX reporting announcement. We will see in late April if that is the case, sell into this rumor and buy back on the fact is probably what they're doing.

Based on my estimates of shorters selling at the day's high and buying back their shorts on the day's low since 21/7/22. I estimate that the current Open short position break-even price is about $0.7044 and they made close to $1m with the stock price currently at $0.52. StockTrack estimates that it will take them 3.23 days to cover their current short position. I think it will take longer given the poor liquidity in AIS lately. They have plenty of unrealised P/L to play with so I think they will lean into any appreciation in the stock price from these levels to slow the rate of appreciation or to increase their shorts further. I don't see them completely closing out their position unless we get a disastrous AIS event again. On the other hand, I would love to see a short squeeze but with less than 1% shorted of the open interest it's not going to run too far from their breakeven price.

Until the macro environment improves, or there's an immediate positive catalyst for the sector and/or stock-specific factors to rerate the stock higher, I think we will just settle into a new range of $0.51-$0.65.